Trading Journal As of 27 Jan 2012

The folllowing position was stopped out

Short Position (Stopped Out)

Republic Services (US)

Republic Services - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Republic Services Daily Chart

Had entered the following position

Short Positions (Initiated)

EURJPY

EURJPY - Short Using the Reversal Bar

EURJPY Daily Chart

Capitamall Trust (SG)

Capitamall Trust - Short Using Intermediate Support Break

Capitamall Trust Daily Chart

Long Positions (Initiated)

DTE Energy Company (US)

DTE Energy Company - Long Using Trendline Break

DTE Energy Company Daily Chart

Duke Energy Corp (US)

Duke Energy Corp - Long Using Trendline Break

Duke Energy Corp Daily Chart

Progress Energy Inc (US)

Progress Energy Inc - Long Using Trendline Break

Progress Energy Inc Daily Chart

Wisconsin Energy (US)

Wisconsin Energy - Long Using Trendline Break

Wisconsin Energy Daily Chart

Windstream Corp short trade is still alive. This market is getting more interesting. Majority of HK and SG stocks are still downtrend driven. Some have turned up. Only US has balance of uptrend and downtrend stocks. Will this be a bullish year?

 

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Trading Journal As of 20 Jan 2012

Here is this week’s update.

Short Positions (Stopped Out)

GBPUSD

GBPUSD - Exiting Due to Trendline Break

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Exited half position here. Overall a profitable trade. (see post)

Genting Singapore PLC

Genting Singapore PLC - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Genting Singapore PLC Daily Chart

The rest of the short trades (Windstream Corp, Republic Services) are still alive. This rally has been very strong so far. Has the market really turn around?

 

 

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Trading Journal As of 13 Jan 2012

Just completed T Harv Eker’s “Mission to Millions”. Here is the update.

Long Position (Initiated and Stopped Out)

GBPCHF

GBPCHF - Long Using Reversal Bar. Stopped Out Due to Stop Loss Hit

GBPCHF Daily Chart

 Short Positions (Stopped Out)

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd (HK)
Bank of Communications Co. Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd Daily Chart

Capitaland Ltd (SG)
Capitaland Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Break

Capitaland Ltd Daily Chart

Overall a profitable trade.(see post)
Hasbro Inc (US)
Hasbro Inc - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Hasbro Inc Daily Chart

Exited half position here. Overall a profitable trade. (see post)
Angang Steel Co. Ltd (HK)
Angang Steel Co. Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Angang Steel Co. Ltd Daily Chart

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Hldgs Ltd (SG)
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Hldgs Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Hldgs Ltd Daily Chart

Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd (HK)
Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd Daily Chart

Textron Inc (US)
Textron Inc - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Textron Inc Daily Chart

Short Position (Initiated)

Republic Services (US)

Republic Services - SHorting Using Support Break

Republic Services Daily Chart

The rest of the short trades (GBPUSD, Windstream Corp and Genting Singapore PLC) are still alive. The market has rallied recently. However, majority of stocks are still in the downtrend.

 

 

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Trading Journal As of 6 Jan 2012

The following trades were stopped out.

Short Positions (Stopped Out)

Ezra Holdings Ltd (SG)

Ezra Holdings Ltd - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Ezra Holdings Ltd Daily Chart

Exited half position here. Overall a profitable trade. (see post)

 
Suntec REITS (SG)

Suntec REITS - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

Suntec REITS Daily Chart

Overall a profitable trade.(see post)

 

LSI Corp (US)
LSI Corp - Stopped Out Due to Resistance Broken

LSI Corp Daily Chart

Exited half position here. Overall a profitable trade. (see post)

 

These are the new positions initiated.

 

Short Position (Initiated)

 

GBPUSD
GBPUSD - Shorted Using Trendline Break

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Had exited half position to trail remaining profit.

 

Angang Steel Co. Ltd (HK)
Angang Steel Co. Ltd - Shorted Using Trendline Break

Angang Steel Co. Ltd Daily Chart

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd (HK)
Bank of Communications Co. Ltd - Shorting Using Trendline Break

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd Daily Chart

Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd (HK)

Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd - Shorting Using Support Break

Shanghai Industrial Hldg Ltd Daily Chart

The rest of the short trades (Windstream Corp, Textron Inc, Hasbro Inc, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Hldgs Ltd, Capitaland Ltd  and Genting Singapore PLC) are still alive.

 

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Eleven Predictions for 2012!

By Courtney Smith


Here are eleven predictions for the coming year. You can take them to the bank!

Well, actually, I don’t pay a lot of attention to my predictions. I’m always afraid that they will distort my interpretation of market action. I always want to focus on the market and what it is telling me to do rather than try to predict the market. So I try to not get to wrapped up in my predictions.

On the other hand, I like the intellectual exercise that leads me to a greater understanding of the markets.

Here is how I use my predictions. I will only follow the market based on my Rules that I teach in my courses. However, I will weight the size of the position greater if the Rules and my analysis agree with each other. For example, I may double the size of my position if my analysis and the Rules are both bullish.

  1. The stock market will move 20 percent higher. PEs are too low. Earnings are moving higher. Global money supply is back to an easing mode. Buy the US stock market.
  2. * The US economy will stumble along at about 1-2 percent through the year. My leading indicators say there will not be a recession but they also say that there will not be a strong economy. This is a good time to start a business as financing rates are low, rents are cheap, and labor is cheap. The company won’t skyrocket right away but you will be positioned for the stinger economy down the road.
  3. * Unemployment will stay very high. Yes, the rate may come down but that will only be due to the fact that fewer people will look for a job. The US economy will not boom because of tax increases and regulatory uncertainty plus the coming recession in Europe.
  4. * Europe will move into recession with weakness mainly on the periphery but with even Germany struggling to stay afloat. Austerity programs, higher taxes, and higher interest rates will weigh on the various economies. Buy European stocks in the middle of the year.
  5. * Global interest rates will stay below 1 percent in major countries. Weak global growth, little private borrowing, and massive monetary easing will keep rates low for another year.
  6. * The housing market in the US will rebound but will still be historically weak. Houses are very very very cheap. Rents are rising. The population is growing. Buy housing stocks.
  7. * The US dollar will rise. The US is the best house in a crappy neighborhood and has a relatively tight monetary policy. Other central banks are easing while the Fed is relatively stable.
  8. * Inflation will stay muted but there may be a surprise to the upside. The raw material for hyper-inflation is in place but the match has yet to be struck. However, I believe that match will be struck by the end of 2012
  9. * Gold will struggle early in the year but move to new highs by the end of the year. Low inflation and a strong dollar will dampen enthusiasm for the yellow metal but the threat of higher inflation driven by global monetary easing will keep a floor on the price. If it looks like inflation is coming back, look for the price to skyrocket. Buy gold but only when it moves into bull markets. Keep some insurance gold under your mattress.
  10. * Commodities will also generally struggle with a similar situation as gold. However, global demand for better living conditions, particularly in huge but poor countries like China, India, and Indonesia will increase the demand for nearly all commodities so commodity prices will be higher at the end of the year. I will generally play commodities from the downside early in the year but from the long side later.
  11. * Emerging market stocks will outperform developed nations. Global monetary easing, generally growing global economies, and tight float on the stocks will boost performance over the year. Buy emerging market stocks when they move into bull markets.

Comments

Based on charts, US is the only market with lots of stock still on the uptrend. HK and SG stocks are now on the downside. The US dollar has been gaining a lot of momentum recently. Courtney knows his stuff very well. I will definitely heed his advice.

What say you?

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